The End of the End
I’m sorry to say, but my hopes for the primaries in Texas and Ohio tomorrow are not good. The Clinton machine went negative, playing to the obvious fears of blue collar voters in both states, and the polls indicate that they’re now reaping the rewards.
It has been an exciting campaign — Barack Obama really does represent our best chance for another Roosevelt or Kennedy, but I fear his great potential will go unfullfilled. The Clintons are ruthless and indefatiguable. This really is Hillary’s only shot at the presidency, and her team is playing like it is.
They’re also playing by the old rules of division, blue states and red states, and they will no doubt run a campaign in the fall much like they did in the primary — chiefly, by focusing all their efforts on a few “swing” states rather than mounting a true 50-state strategy like Obama ran in the primary. The Clintons subscribe to the Rovian believe of slicing the electorate as small as possible, and hope that the majority of interest groups end up backing you by +1%.
It will be a nice surprise if Obama pulls things off tomorrow, but at this point I’m not hopeful. I believe very strongly that even if he ultimately wins the popular vote and the delegate count, the nomination will still go to Hillary through the superdelegates. All they have to do is make a case (which they’re already in the process of making) of a late surge, and essentially all earlier votes for Obama will be invalidated.
But I don’t believe this will be the end of Obama. Hillary will fall to McCain in November, and Obama will have another shot in four years — possibly even a clear shot, given McCain’s age and the stresses of the Presidency. I don’t think McCain can last for two full terms.
Some day or another, I’m convinced that Barack Obama will be president of the United States. Maybe not in 2008 — the Clinton machine, despite all their failings, is still too powerful a force in the Democratic party. They don’t deserve to win the nomination, but the party will surely hand it to them.
So tomorrow I’ll be avoiding the election coverage. There’s no reason to get any more depressed about this than I already am. I’ll keep my fingers crossed throughout the day, but I don’t think it will be enough.
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By Dale Rawlings, March 7, 2008 @ 10:34 pm
What gets me about Hillary’s attacks on Obama is she has not so subtly intimated that she would rather see McCain as president than Obama. And I hate to agree with your prediction but I fear you are correct abouit how this will go down.
The only real glaring difference between Hilary and Obama was their stance on whether to go to war with Iraq in the first place but that is more than enough for me to back him. And Obama was neither my first or second choice for the nomination.
Sadly, hope might not be making a comeback this election. It might get kneecapped at the Democratic Convention and discreetly escorted out a side door and left in the alley.