I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the central conflict of our time. It is not, as some have suggested, fueled by the differences between “liberals” and “conservatives,” but rather, the differences between people who view the world realistically, making judgements based on empirical facts, and people who view the world through a distortion caused by their own biases, making judgements based on wishes and fantasies. Or, simply put, people who allow themselves to fall victim to magical thinking.

Take Iraq, for instance. The war itself was built on a foundation of magical thinking. The neoconservatives and their allies in the Bush administration believed that by deposing Saddam, they would be able to install a democracy in Iraq, and that democracy would spread throughout the Middle East, transforming the region into a modern, pluralistic and open society. They had faith that it would work. Thousands of years of Arab history would be washed away — these new democracies, spreading like a virus, would make the Arab street realize they had been wrong about Israel and the United States all these years. All would be forgiven, and peace, at long last, would flourish in the Middle East.

The people who hatched these plans knew next to nothing about the region. The President, the man who would ultimately decide to set these things in motion, didn’t even know the difference between a Shiite and a Sunni, the two main branches of Islam. To the President and his allies, the people of the Middle East were like flecks of metal, highly susceptible to the irresistible magnetism of democracy. Their history, culture and concerns did not factor into their belief that deposing Saddam would fix terrorism, open up access to cheap oil, and bring about peace in Israel.

Anyone with any knowledge of facts on the ground in the Middle East, or familiarity with Muslim culture, would have known that that the American invasion in Iraq would fail. Obviously, Saddam was easy enough to depose, but the part about democracy spreading through the region — the part that relied solely on faith — was always something we should have been skeptical of.

It’s because of this that I think the so-called “surge” or escalation in American troops being floated by the Bush administration will end in failure. It seems another venture dependent on having faith that we will prevail. But can even an increase in troops cause a rout of the extremist militias, or turn around a civilian population that blames us largely for the chaos unleashed in their country?

Today, I watched an “Inconvenient Truth,” the documentary that follows Al Gore as he gives lectures around the country about the gathering threat of Global Warming. Some may recall the ad campaign offered by the oil industry to counter the film: “Carbon Dioxide: Some Call it Pollution, We Call it ‘Life’.” That kind of idea, as well as the anti-environmental dogma espoused by the right, has roots in one place: magical thinking. We don’t want a global environmental tragedy, so we’ll just pretend that it’s not happening and do our best to discredit the clear facts and scientific consensus about the issue. Because hey, if such a catastrophe ever happens, we won’t be alive to see it anyway!

I can only hope that the public wises up to the need for people who recognize facts over “intuition,” and elects a new president who does not subscribe to magical thinking as his or her main inspiration for crafting public policy. The world has a lot of big problems, and only realism can solve them. If it’s not already too late.

I have only a handful of “life-changing” records — records that come along and seep into your skin, dripping deep down into your DNA. Songs you can’t get out of your blood. Music that resets your life.

Examples are Fugazi’s self-titled debut EP (collected on “13 Songs”), Nirvana’s “Nevermind,” Belle and Sebastian’s “If You’re Feeling Sinister” and June of ’44’s “Engine Takes to Water.”

Greatest of all, however, is The Arcade Fire’s “Funeral.” Currently holding the crown of my personal favorite record of all time, “Funeral” came along at a very critical time in my life — in the year of Tina’s pregnancy, while my girls were being formed. Thematically, “Funeral” is about big things — life, death, family, growing up. It fit quite profoundly in what was going on in my life at the time. I still feel deeply moved when I listen to it. On my iPod’s top-twenty-five most-played list, something like 12 of those songs are Arcade Fire songs from “Funeral.” No other band has more than two songs on the list.

So it’s with a little fear that I approach the band’s new record, “Neon Bible.” I want to love it, but I also know the band has moved on from the place they were in for “Funeral.” I can’t help but think of Belle and Sebastian’s “The Boy With the Arab Strap,” beloved by critics and bigger in some ways than “If You’re Feeling Sinister,” but for me infinitely disappointing. “The Boy With the Arab” strap was the start of the long slide away from “If You’re Feeling Sinister,” the start of the chain that would ultimately lead to the dismal self-parody that is last year’s “The Life Pursuit.”

I love the Arcade Fire too much to see them go the route of Belle and Sebastian. But fortunately, the first two songs I’ve heard are very promising. Not life-changing, but solid, and good. “Intervention,” the first iTunes single, reminds me of their splendid “Us Kids Know” EP, and “Black Mirror,” available for streaming on the band’s web site, is interesting, perhaps a little darker than we’re used to.. I’m starting to get excited, now. I only wish they’d let us know the release date.